2024 US Election: What's happened so far?

Contents

• The Run-up to 2024 US Election: What's Happened So Far

• Key Issues and Debates

• What Happened Last Time: Trump vs. Biden 2020

• Key Dates for the 2024 US Election

• Why Traders Should Pay Attention

• Final thoughts

 

The 2024 US election promises to be one of the most significant political events in recent history. With far-reaching consequences for both local and global markets, the outcome of this election will be felt well beyond the borders of the United States.

As the race heats up, traders around the globe are closely monitoring developments, ready to adjust their strategies based on the changing political climate.

In this blog, we look at the story so far, the key issues at stake, and why this election is so important to the global trading community.

 

The Run-up to 2024 US Election: What's Happened So Far

From former President Trump's legal issues and attempted assassination to concerns about President Biden’s health, the lead-up to the 2024 US election has been anything but uneventful.

Here’s a detailed look at the major events and developments in both the Democratic and Republican camps so far.

 

Democratic Nominee – Kamala Harris  

After President Joe Biden dramatically dropped out of the race in July, Vice President Kamala Harris took his place as the Democratic nonimee.

Biden's age and concerns over his health sparked discussions within the party about potential alternatives, with Harris being the logical successor.

Harris brings a strong focus on addressing systemic inequalities, advocating for comprehensive criminal justice reform, and advancing social justice initiatives. Her commitment to infrastructure investments, climate action, and affordable healthcare underscores her drive to create a more sustainable and equitable society.

Additionally, Harris's unique background as the first female Vice President and a woman of color provides her with a distinct perspective that resonates with diverse communities across the nation.

Republican Nominee – Donald Trump

On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump is still the frontrunner, despite being a polarising figure within the party and facing multiple legal challenges, including a high-profile trial and several ongoing investigations by state authorities and the Justice Department alike.

Trump has dominated the Republican primaries from the start, causing most challengers to drop out before a single vote was cast, and quickly eliminating the rest by winning all but two contests.

On July 13th, Trump was grazed by a bullet during an attempted assassination at a rally in Pennsylvania - once again highlighting the tense and feverish state of politics in the US.

 

Key Issues and Debates

Several key issues are at the forefront of the 2024 election debates:

• Economic policy: With inflation concerns and post-pandemic economic recovery, both parties are heavily focused on economic strategies. Democrats prioritise social spending and infrastructure, while Republicans advocate for tax cuts and deregulation.

• Foreign policy: US-China relations, the war in Ukraine, and NATO alliances are central to the candidates' foreign policy platforms.

• Healthcare: Healthcare remains a critical issue, with debates over the future of Obamacare (Affordable Care Act) and how the COVID-19 pandemic was handled continuing to divide voters.

• Climate change: Democrats are pushing for aggressive climate policies, including renewable energy investments and carbon regulations, while Republicans focus on energy independence and the economic impacts of environmental regulations.

• Immigration: Immigration policy is a contentious topic, with Trump renewing his hardline stance on border security and Biden promoting more comprehensive reform.

• Social issues: Issues like gun control, abortion rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and education are also at the forefront, reflecting the deep ideological divides within the American population.

 

What Happened Last Time: Trump vs. Biden 2020

In the 2020 election, Joe Biden emerged victorious against then-incumbent President Donald Trump. The election was marked by exceptional voter turnout and significant controversy over mail-in ballots and election integrity.

Trump's refusal to concede and the subsequent Capitol riot on 6 January 2021 were pivotal moments that continue to influence American politics.

 

2020 Election Highlights

• Biden: 306 Electoral Votes, 81.2 million popular votes
• Trump: 232 Electoral Votes, 74.2 million popular votes
• Voter Turnout: Record high at 66.3%

 

How the Markets Reacted to the 2020 US Election

 

Key Dates for the 2024 US Election

• Republican National Convention: 15 – 18 July 2024
• Democratic National Convention: 19 – 22 August 2024
• Election Day: 5 November 2024

 

Why Traders Should Pay Attention

The lead-up and result of the US election have significant implications for global markets and traders.

 

Market volatility

Election periods typically bring heightened market volatility. Traders can expect significant swings in USD pairs, US stocks, and other financial instruments as the political landscape evolves.

 

Economic policy impact

The outcome will shape US economic policy, influencing everything from tax rates to regulatory environments. This, in turn, affects corporate earnings, investment strategies, and economic forecasts globally.

 

Global economic policy

The US plays a pivotal role in global economic policy. Changes in US leadership and policy direction can affect international trade agreements, geopolitical stability, and global economic trends.

 

The Bottom Line

As we approach the 2024 US election, the political landscape is set to influence the markets.

For traders, staying informed about the latest developments, understanding the key issues, and anticipating potential market reactions are essential strategies. Keeping up to date with news about the election can help traders not only take advantage of potential volatility and movements in the markets but manage their risk effectively too.

The stakes are high, and the ripple effects of this election will be felt worldwide. As the story continues to unfold, traders should remain vigilant and adaptable, ready to respond to the opportunities found in the dynamics and unpredictability of this political showdown.

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