Brent is trading above $80 per barrel

• Brent crude exceeds $80 per barrel, nearing double-digit YTD gains
   
• US sanctions on Russian oil and shrinking stockpiles drive prices higher
   
• Middle East ceasefire eases some geopolitical tensions
   
• Market braces for potential policy shifts under incoming Trump administration

Brent have surged and is trading slightly above psychologically important $80 per barrel and is nearing double-digit year-to-date gains, fueled by concerns over new US sanctions on Russian oil and declining US stockpiles.
 

The Biden administration's recent expansion of sanctions against Russian oil has kept Brent prices elevated,

with traders eyeing potential further measures under President-elect Trump. Expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts have also affected prices.

However, reports of a Middle East ceasefire have eased some geopolitical risk premium.

Despite this, traders remain cautious, preparing for potential policy shifts following Trump’s inauguration (January 20), such as trade tariffs and/or initiatives to boost US production.

According to Bloomberg, the forecasted median and mean Brent price in Q1 2025 is $74.00 and $74.39 respectively.

Brent forecast, Bloomberg consensus, as of 01/16/2025